A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
